* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 38 35 31 28 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 38 35 31 28 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 41 39 35 32 29 26 24 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 14 16 10 10 11 13 16 20 16 8 4 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -1 -6 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 257 242 189 197 206 224 251 225 215 201 202 193 199 190 114 101 46 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.3 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 123 121 121 115 115 111 107 106 108 109 111 112 113 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 58 54 49 45 41 38 35 33 33 30 27 27 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 27 35 30 27 46 43 44 41 46 47 50 39 21 1 -19 200 MB DIV 12 -5 -8 -11 -16 -5 28 3 -8 1 -8 -20 -9 -5 -3 -18 -21 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 1 2 6 6 4 0 -5 -6 -6 -1 -1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1845 1881 1919 1959 2000 2086 2133 2027 1965 1944 1933 1934 1946 1979 1991 1991 1991 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.3 19.9 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.9 130.6 131.3 131.9 133.2 134.4 135.4 136.0 136.2 136.3 136.3 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -26. -28. -26. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 129.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##