* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052015 07/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 59 67 79 85 87 93 97 95 96 98 98 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 59 67 79 85 87 93 97 95 96 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 59 70 79 86 91 91 90 89 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 3 3 7 12 11 9 8 8 6 1 6 5 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -10 0 1 -3 0 1 -1 -4 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 149 133 169 206 226 286 315 345 350 342 346 305 341 22 55 68 68 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.1 28.5 28.5 27.8 26.8 26.5 26.9 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 167 171 170 168 166 161 154 147 147 139 129 126 131 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 78 78 74 71 70 67 67 67 64 66 68 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 15 20 20 26 29 31 35 39 40 42 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 4 0 0 -15 7 21 24 45 54 89 101 121 127 129 143 200 MB DIV 79 80 85 67 68 44 76 40 51 56 53 36 34 25 53 15 28 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 4 4 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 308 292 278 256 235 215 216 249 299 366 333 314 348 404 492 592 664 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.1 101.1 102.1 103.1 104.9 106.2 107.2 108.2 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 44 38 42 47 39 34 26 17 10 9 5 1 1 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 8. 11. 19. 25. 26. 30. 31. 29. 29. 28. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 29. 37. 49. 55. 57. 63. 67. 65. 66. 68. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 99.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.77 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.91 -7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.47 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 25.7% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.9% 6.0% 1.8% 0.8% 9.6% 30.5% 38.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 10.4% Consensus: 4.3% 12.5% 9.2% 0.6% 0.3% 3.2% 10.3% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 FIVE 07/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##