* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 77 66 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 86 77 66 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 87 77 68 58 40 26 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 26 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 1 5 4 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 133 142 154 175 207 210 216 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.9 25.2 23.7 21.4 19.8 18.9 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 123 115 100 76 61 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 58 54 55 53 47 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 29 26 22 17 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 59 50 48 25 21 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -8 15 5 18 18 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 0 1 -2 2 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 405 316 241 188 139 66 -22 11 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.2 23.2 25.2 27.0 28.7 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.3 111.7 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -19. -31. -41. -50. -56. -61. -66. -70. -73. -78. -81. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -21. -31. -40. -41. -40. -38. -35. -31. -28. -26. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -29. -40. -59. -80.-100.-119.-126.-131.-135.-138.-139.-141.-143.-143. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.3 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##