* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 71 81 99 114 118 119 111 102 88 73 54 41 29 19 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 71 81 99 114 118 119 111 102 88 73 54 41 29 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 66 82 102 119 126 114 96 76 58 44 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 4 3 5 4 11 15 17 16 18 22 21 18 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -6 3 7 8 6 7 4 0 3 8 4 SHEAR DIR 291 312 319 359 339 59 143 109 80 100 95 111 106 130 151 144 124 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.4 28.3 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 161 161 160 161 163 158 147 130 120 110 110 109 97 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 85 84 85 80 75 74 72 71 67 59 52 44 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 20 21 22 25 29 34 36 40 39 39 34 29 21 15 9 4 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -1 13 23 41 55 67 81 65 65 54 79 69 90 85 63 200 MB DIV 148 141 124 115 111 108 124 106 91 93 60 7 0 -22 -3 -8 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 -5 -1 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 549 553 557 566 574 613 616 604 559 497 437 421 403 279 167 63 15 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.8 15.2 16.6 18.1 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.2 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.7 104.8 105.0 105.7 106.8 107.9 108.9 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 7 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 88 92 93 94 95 95 94 92 82 41 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 33. 32. 31. 23. 15. 5. -2. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 36. 54. 69. 73. 74. 66. 57. 43. 28. 9. -4. -16. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 104.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 24.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 14.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.90 20.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.68 14.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -68.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.99 -25.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 11.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 14.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.98 10.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 91% is 7.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 19.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.0% 90.5% 89.6% 82.9% 81.4% 100.0% 100.0% 55.7% Logistic: 49.4% 91.2% 80.3% 71.1% 58.6% 81.8% 67.5% 56.6% Bayesian: 59.7% 93.4% 95.6% 89.4% 64.3% 98.7% 98.1% 52.0% Consensus: 49.3% 91.7% 88.5% 81.2% 68.1% 93.5% 88.5% 54.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##