* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 102 98 93 81 68 58 47 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 105 102 98 93 81 68 58 47 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 103 99 93 86 73 62 52 43 37 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 10 14 23 25 20 10 9 10 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 3 1 0 2 5 1 0 6 6 0 0 -1 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 271 287 299 310 287 259 259 236 249 248 262 247 294 261 251 209 220 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 125 119 121 113 109 106 102 100 98 98 96 96 95 95 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 62 58 55 53 48 42 28 16 10 8 9 9 8 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 31 32 33 33 30 28 25 24 22 18 12 7 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 74 89 88 89 88 67 76 53 87 94 104 43 14 11 15 20 200 MB DIV 64 69 45 34 29 0 5 -14 -25 -12 -11 -40 -48 -72 -51 -48 -20 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 4 5 13 12 13 5 0 3 -3 -1 -3 0 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 1229 1252 1269 1290 1315 1377 1448 1474 1496 1514 1539 1556 1581 1606 1615 1615 1615 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.2 119.8 120.5 121.2 122.7 124.2 125.4 126.2 126.7 127.1 127.4 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -41. -47. -53. -58. -62. -65. -69. -73. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -26. -24. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -12. -24. -37. -47. -58. -67. -77. -88. -97.-103.-108.-111.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.3 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##