* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 89 86 82 71 62 56 50 41 34 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 89 86 82 71 62 56 50 41 34 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 87 81 76 67 58 49 42 36 32 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 11 7 3 6 8 11 5 11 13 29 24 15 14 11 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 7 6 1 1 5 -2 0 4 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 298 302 305 272 276 241 260 267 242 256 243 263 259 317 326 298 266 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 121 124 119 120 112 111 106 101 98 94 93 95 99 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 63 59 58 56 51 47 43 33 21 13 9 8 9 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 31 32 31 31 31 29 26 25 23 19 13 8 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 56 70 86 94 100 67 72 68 107 98 35 16 21 14 9 200 MB DIV 73 58 54 61 42 41 11 9 20 4 -22 -25 -40 -51 -52 -43 -37 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 4 6 6 10 8 8 4 0 0 -6 -4 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1126 1153 1182 1200 1219 1275 1356 1440 1504 1583 1668 1753 1822 1881 1943 2029 2107 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.4 119.1 119.7 121.1 122.7 124.2 125.8 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -25. -31. -37. -41. -46. -49. -53. -57. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -9. -10. -15. -20. -22. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -24. -33. -39. -45. -54. -61. -70. -78. -88. -94.-100.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.3 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 9.8% 3.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##