* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 87 85 80 77 72 67 59 51 43 37 30 25 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 87 85 80 77 72 67 59 51 43 37 30 25 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 85 85 82 78 70 65 62 56 48 41 35 30 26 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 16 14 7 2 5 10 10 6 5 6 6 14 14 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 1 3 3 4 3 4 0 4 0 1 7 6 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 346 346 336 313 315 296 250 271 271 303 271 306 300 311 298 291 293 SST (C) 28.1 27.2 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 25.5 25.5 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 135 127 125 124 125 128 117 117 109 108 103 99 97 98 101 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 68 65 62 58 59 55 53 52 47 43 40 36 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 34 33 32 34 35 36 34 30 27 24 21 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 52 66 69 76 87 100 97 82 76 64 67 46 50 57 66 200 MB DIV 63 74 68 65 61 44 35 19 12 -34 -23 -32 -29 -18 -20 -30 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 4 3 5 7 11 7 10 2 3 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1165 1146 1133 1141 1154 1195 1220 1274 1354 1449 1526 1631 1732 1831 1930 2030 2137 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.9 116.4 117.0 117.6 118.9 120.1 121.5 123.0 124.7 126.3 127.8 129.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 3 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. -33. -36. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 5. 8. 9. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. -3. -8. -13. -21. -29. -37. -43. -50. -55. -59. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.7 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.20 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.19 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 22.1% 18.3% 15.2% 10.8% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 25.1% 6.0% 5.5% 2.9% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 16.4% 8.3% 7.0% 4.6% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##