* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 89 88 78 63 45 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 89 88 78 63 45 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 86 83 70 54 40 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 13 21 32 37 42 40 47 46 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 8 9 11 17 13 10 7 3 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 237 220 233 212 224 226 214 214 230 243 256 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 156 152 152 146 140 137 140 140 138 133 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 74 73 75 70 56 43 34 29 22 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 23 23 20 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -9 -4 8 38 52 88 61 46 40 23 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 135 125 133 159 107 51 42 -11 -18 -33 -18 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 11 16 12 9 0 0 3 5 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 811 787 753 731 639 514 389 268 157 98 142 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.1 22.4 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.3 110.7 110.8 110.5 110.0 109.7 109.8 110.4 111.3 112.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 34 31 30 19 10 7 9 11 13 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -33. -38. -40. -41. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 14. 13. 3. -12. -30. -46. -55. -63. -70. -77. -80. -83. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.3 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.91 10.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.04 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -9.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.33 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 56.5% 43.1% 36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.4% 38.8% 26.9% 20.4% 3.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 72.8% 64.4% 80.4% 59.1% 5.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 55.9% 48.8% 47.8% 26.5% 3.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##