* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 56 63 69 68 56 44 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 56 63 69 68 56 44 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 52 58 63 58 46 35 27 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 6 7 6 13 23 33 43 53 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 10 17 7 0 -4 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 15 351 326 301 241 203 200 236 242 263 263 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.8 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 155 160 163 159 155 150 143 155 154 149 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 74 73 74 75 69 54 44 40 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 19 20 22 21 16 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -3 -8 -8 1 1 33 47 78 55 31 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 39 38 70 90 171 162 108 24 -12 -24 -27 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 1 2 12 18 10 -3 3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 894 892 888 896 845 740 589 399 262 120 30 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.8 13.4 15.2 17.1 19.2 21.2 22.6 23.2 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.9 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.9 110.4 110.1 109.3 108.2 107.4 106.8 106.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 10 11 10 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 17 33 44 33 21 8 44 38 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -6. -15. -22. -29. -29. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 1. -3. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 28. 16. 4. -13. -23. -31. -32. -32. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.8 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.78 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 35.4% 23.0% 18.5% 13.6% 36.2% 54.3% 0.0% Logistic: 13.5% 62.0% 40.4% 28.1% 18.6% 49.4% 38.7% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 16.6% 4.7% 1.2% 1.5% 15.5% 21.8% 2.2% Consensus: 9.2% 38.0% 22.7% 15.9% 11.2% 33.7% 38.3% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##