* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 52 44 41 40 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 52 44 41 40 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 58 56 52 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 10 11 14 32 58 72 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 11 12 14 12 12 -3 -14 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 304 305 321 333 317 300 285 277 271 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.0 25.0 22.9 22.4 18.2 15.7 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 115 116 95 91 67 68 67 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.0 -51.0 -48.6 -47.9 -47.6 -47.0 -47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 52 52 49 52 59 50 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 17 19 22 22 24 23 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -36 -21 -11 0 57 153 125 111 113 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 16 33 40 49 38 41 16 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 25 32 28 34 66 112 124 40 0 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1222 1230 1262 1306 1391 1716 1778 1318 797 463 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.1 31.3 32.8 34.3 37.6 41.0 44.3 46.6 47.9 49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.6 168.5 167.4 165.4 163.3 157.7 150.5 142.9 137.0 132.8 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 19 23 26 30 33 28 20 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. -33. -37. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. -2. -18. -40. -60. -65. -70. -77. -87.-100.-108. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 18. 14. 8. 5. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -3. -11. -14. -15. -25. -46. -75. -85. -96.-113.-127.-143.-148. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.9 169.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##