* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 65 69 76 82 87 88 88 87 82 73 63 43 23 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 65 69 76 82 87 88 88 87 82 73 63 43 23 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 62 63 65 70 77 82 84 80 75 66 54 44 33 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 26 24 22 16 14 5 4 4 2 11 12 17 37 50 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 2 6 3 8 10 9 4 4 10 SHEAR DIR 254 236 230 225 211 218 227 142 224 202 277 272 265 283 256 245 254 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.5 25.1 23.4 18.3 15.2 14.2 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 147 143 140 138 131 118 114 103 70 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.7 -50.4 -50.4 -51.8 -52.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 49 47 49 48 47 49 50 57 61 56 35 54 62 56 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 26 26 26 26 29 35 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -16 -17 -14 -27 -26 -28 -35 -41 -28 25 130 212 189 139 152 200 MB DIV 5 24 51 26 29 -2 12 3 19 33 17 66 9 97 79 30 64 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 4 4 1 0 3 6 14 31 38 15 90 52 -65 -46 LAND (KM) 297 363 437 498 563 654 748 850 951 1051 1154 1270 1414 1885 1470 784 156 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.1 26.4 28.1 29.9 31.8 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.8 163.6 164.4 165.0 165.7 166.5 167.2 167.8 168.2 168.1 167.6 166.7 165.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 32 46 35 31 29 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 33 33 34 28 20 20 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -5. -9. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -18. -30. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 14. 19. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 22. 27. 28. 28. 27. 22. 13. 3. -17. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.6 162.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##