* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 58 61 66 73 81 82 86 86 82 80 70 61 49 32 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 58 61 66 73 81 82 86 86 82 80 70 61 49 32 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 58 59 64 72 81 86 84 77 69 57 46 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 35 28 25 22 7 6 6 11 10 16 17 17 26 42 52 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 0 -2 -7 -3 0 0 3 6 10 1 4 11 SHEAR DIR 257 251 243 223 228 219 257 234 239 262 264 269 258 289 275 244 246 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.4 26.6 25.2 25.0 24.1 20.8 16.3 14.8 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 146 147 147 142 138 137 128 114 112 107 78 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.7 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 49 49 50 48 51 56 58 61 63 49 58 61 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 20 23 23 26 27 27 28 29 32 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -31 -25 -20 -17 -25 -35 -32 -24 -48 -53 -2 66 89 199 120 155 200 MB DIV 22 18 26 50 50 -21 4 0 23 11 32 34 50 65 81 40 33 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 4 2 2 0 1 5 10 20 38 25 47 121 -20 -51 LAND (KM) 203 267 343 419 501 648 762 856 962 1058 1164 1268 1381 1520 1684 1232 602 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.6 27.0 28.3 29.7 31.1 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.8 162.7 163.5 164.3 165.1 166.4 167.2 167.6 167.9 168.0 168.0 167.8 167.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 21 39 39 33 29 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 31 29 31 27 18 18 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -20. -31. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 14. 16. 15. 15. 14. 15. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 1. 6. 13. 21. 22. 26. 26. 22. 20. 10. 1. -11. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.7 161.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##