* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 53 53 53 52 52 49 48 45 45 48 49 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 53 53 53 52 52 49 48 45 45 48 49 48 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 51 51 50 47 44 40 38 35 34 35 37 40 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 8 17 15 20 29 31 29 25 16 21 21 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 -1 -3 -3 1 3 1 -2 -3 -1 2 -1 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 17 28 335 287 284 268 273 276 285 275 272 262 263 246 235 221 223 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 137 138 141 141 140 142 144 145 142 141 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 57 58 58 64 65 59 55 52 53 56 55 56 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 18 18 16 15 14 16 16 17 20 21 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 17 13 3 -11 -18 -18 -10 -4 -15 -8 0 7 22 49 52 200 MB DIV 26 42 49 40 42 48 71 66 5 30 22 37 25 28 18 51 59 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 1 6 6 0 2 2 6 3 4 2 -3 LAND (KM) 759 658 561 457 355 158 102 114 63 48 22 153 297 301 489 525 542 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.4 151.4 152.3 153.2 154.1 155.7 156.8 157.6 158.4 159.2 160.3 161.5 162.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 7 6 5 6 6 6 3 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 15 14 13 15 30 41 48 50 41 35 25 23 22 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -4. -3. -2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 150.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 6.0% 17.0% 9.1% 6.6% 1.6% 4.8% 2.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##