* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 62 62 64 64 65 60 59 57 54 52 54 56 56 53 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 62 62 64 64 65 60 59 57 54 47 54 57 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 61 60 59 57 55 52 50 49 47 42 48 53 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 8 6 6 3 18 17 29 25 20 19 21 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 2 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 2 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 357 347 347 326 338 311 299 257 293 267 276 262 277 257 247 238 249 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 136 136 139 137 135 136 139 139 141 141 141 134 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 60 60 59 60 63 67 69 65 64 64 62 56 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 23 24 22 21 17 16 16 16 16 18 21 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 23 29 27 28 9 8 0 9 13 32 25 19 29 59 60 200 MB DIV 0 26 27 28 39 77 60 65 79 58 22 48 42 76 48 26 29 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 2 1 2 6 8 14 14 1 -9 LAND (KM) 1016 934 853 766 682 511 323 139 25 82 51 46 -2 179 374 420 468 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.8 148.6 149.5 150.3 151.9 153.5 154.9 156.1 157.0 157.9 158.7 159.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 8 7 8 14 16 11 15 28 41 48 40 17 14 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -2. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -6. -4. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 147.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.2% 8.3% 3.6% 2.6% 0.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##