* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 63 72 80 89 95 100 104 109 110 111 112 111 100 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 63 72 80 89 95 100 104 109 110 111 112 111 100 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 58 62 70 80 89 96 98 98 99 95 90 90 83 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 6 8 1 5 15 13 9 10 8 16 18 36 43 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -3 0 4 0 -3 -2 1 0 0 -2 3 2 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 262 274 276 236 220 39 219 310 287 292 256 240 239 219 228 231 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 158 157 157 156 156 153 150 148 146 143 128 129 127 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 151 149 148 144 142 138 132 130 127 125 112 115 116 104 102 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -52.2 -52.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 51 52 53 53 56 57 60 58 56 50 45 32 25 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 20 21 25 27 31 34 39 41 44 48 52 50 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -2 5 0 0 -13 -14 -8 10 4 34 60 107 124 104 -36 200 MB DIV 18 17 32 34 35 30 48 51 29 76 66 88 66 74 23 4 21 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 5 9 11 10 12 12 12 13 9 13 5 -1 1 23 LAND (KM) 579 468 356 254 158 109 233 341 432 529 661 835 1014 1223 1362 1172 900 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.8 23.0 24.0 25.1 26.4 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.5 62.5 63.3 64.2 65.6 66.6 67.3 67.7 67.7 67.2 66.2 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 14 21 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 48 42 43 46 54 67 84 80 60 44 31 28 21 12 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 14. 19. 22. 28. 30. 31. 34. 37. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 27. 35. 44. 50. 55. 59. 64. 65. 66. 67. 66. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 60.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.82 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 30.2% 17.6% 11.1% 9.2% 23.6% 31.1% 32.7% Logistic: 5.4% 31.1% 21.9% 13.3% 5.1% 20.8% 14.3% 13.3% Bayesian: 4.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 7.3% 0.6% Consensus: 6.0% 21.8% 13.8% 8.2% 4.8% 15.6% 17.6% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 59 63 72 80 89 95 100 104 109 110 111 112 111 100 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 58 67 75 84 90 95 99 104 105 106 107 106 95 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 59 67 76 82 87 91 96 97 98 99 98 87 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 56 65 71 76 80 85 86 87 88 87 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT