* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 53 50 44 38 31 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 53 50 44 38 31 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 54 50 44 39 34 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 18 19 19 20 25 25 32 29 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 196 186 212 217 216 223 225 221 210 218 223 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 117 116 115 116 116 117 117 116 115 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 39 36 34 34 30 28 24 19 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 17 15 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 29 23 30 36 39 36 31 39 31 32 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 15 14 -28 -14 0 -7 -16 -13 -12 3 -4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 631 624 618 622 625 654 683 741 802 876 970 1069 1185 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.6 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.5 117.6 117.7 117.8 118.0 118.2 118.6 119.1 119.8 120.8 122.0 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -21. -27. -34. -41. -49. -56. -62. -67. -67. -67. -69. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.6 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##