* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 26 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 21 21 24 20 19 13 15 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -6 0 -4 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 108 113 118 112 132 132 131 118 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 139 137 135 131 131 131 133 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 52 49 48 47 50 47 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 24 14 23 19 15 7 2 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 5 7 9 20 -3 7 2 6 -22 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 4 2 6 1 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 172 136 136 172 209 282 337 393 441 484 532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.5 21.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 110.9 111.5 112.1 113.2 114.0 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -28. -27. -24. -21. -19. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##