* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 31 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 31 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 30 26 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 30 25 24 25 19 21 17 16 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 103 109 112 119 124 127 134 131 123 106 95 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 140 134 131 132 130 131 131 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 54 51 47 46 46 45 44 45 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 37 26 19 33 18 18 6 11 18 24 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 17 5 2 1 10 -4 13 -1 -16 -4 -6 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 2 2 3 6 4 4 2 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 190 161 171 209 274 317 384 433 478 532 589 643 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.6 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.9 113.8 114.5 115.0 115.3 115.6 115.8 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 10 6 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -24. -30. -33. -36. -36. -34. -32. -29. -27. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##