* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 53 53 51 48 43 35 30 23 20 18 19 19 21 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 53 53 51 48 43 35 30 23 20 18 19 19 21 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 56 53 50 45 40 33 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 25 26 15 19 15 21 16 18 20 17 17 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 4 0 4 4 4 3 2 4 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 76 74 80 81 90 108 107 115 118 126 125 132 135 125 123 112 117 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 144 140 140 134 128 125 122 119 116 115 115 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 70 65 64 62 58 55 52 51 49 46 44 43 44 43 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 17 16 17 20 19 18 16 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 46 56 49 34 43 32 41 25 20 8 10 17 28 34 34 200 MB DIV 49 25 29 23 11 13 5 18 2 5 8 3 -8 -11 -5 -11 1 700-850 TADV -6 0 1 1 -1 -1 2 3 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 202 220 241 282 310 200 189 268 307 368 449 505 541 541 541 541 541 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.4 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.6 113.8 115.0 116.0 116.7 117.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 22 20 16 11 11 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -17. -25. -30. -37. -40. -42. -41. -41. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##