* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 44 39 34 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 44 39 34 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 45 41 38 35 35 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 30 30 28 13 24 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -5 -5 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 289 293 294 310 314 281 276 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 22.9 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.3 21.1 22.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 88 85 85 83 82 88 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 77 76 74 74 73 73 77 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.8 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 41 40 41 39 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 16 13 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -68 -88 -78 -59 -5 -21 1 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -18 -8 -17 -25 -1 -15 -32 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 10 11 23 16 -9 -22 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1375 1443 1512 1583 1654 1832 1890 1829 1702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.6 38.6 36.9 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.9 37.9 36.9 35.9 34.9 32.7 31.0 29.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -38. -48. -53. -57. -59. -62. -65. -67. -68. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.9 38.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 44 39 34 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 48 43 38 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 41 36 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 35 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT