* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 39 39 38 40 40 38 36 34 36 39 40 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 45 47 44 43 43 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 43 40 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 21 24 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 1 2 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 213 222 237 235 240 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 30.5 31.3 31.4 31.3 30.2 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 168 169 169 170 165 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 59 56 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 14 12 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 0 -2 -9 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 50 34 4 -1 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -15 24 62 39 11 -115 -240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.9 32.0 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.6 113.6 113.3 113.1 112.4 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 28 34 42 48 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -14. -22. -28. -30. -32. -35. -38. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -14. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. -6. -9. -11. -9. -6. -5. -4. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 113.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.3% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##