* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 100 100 99 93 84 67 49 33 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 100 100 99 93 84 67 49 33 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 99 97 95 87 75 61 50 43 39 38 39 39 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 5 4 9 14 23 32 34 27 16 21 33 40 39 35 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 2 -3 5 4 2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 119 114 115 173 195 227 234 266 283 303 320 288 278 278 273 276 284 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 25.6 23.8 21.8 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.6 23.2 24.4 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 138 138 136 113 99 87 87 85 87 88 88 91 99 103 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 121 120 119 100 87 78 76 74 75 76 76 78 83 86 88 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -56.4 -56.7 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 40 44 49 54 54 49 52 55 52 47 45 36 33 28 26 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 32 32 30 30 26 21 17 12 11 10 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -16 -6 0 21 15 11 -8 -50 -37 0 -10 -6 -15 -28 -34 -24 200 MB DIV 37 97 87 77 90 37 42 25 0 -34 -9 -22 -25 -24 -24 -38 -23 700-850 TADV 4 6 14 20 9 6 27 21 19 16 13 -25 -40 -20 -12 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1585 1485 1383 1295 1200 973 935 1094 1288 1461 1640 1825 1983 1967 1894 1843 1789 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.8 33.0 34.3 35.6 38.1 39.8 40.7 41.0 40.6 39.9 38.9 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 57.4 57.0 55.8 54.7 50.9 46.5 42.3 39.1 37.0 35.1 33.4 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 18 19 18 14 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 14 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -17. -29. -40. -50. -58. -64. -69. -74. -76. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -11. -18. -26. -34. -37. -37. -36. -39. -39. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -7. -16. -33. -51. -67. -79. -84. -86. -88. -90. -91. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.6 57.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 799.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 22( 39) 21( 52) 14( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 100 100 99 93 84 67 49 33 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 99 99 98 92 83 66 48 32 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 95 89 80 63 45 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 83 74 57 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 66 49 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 77 68 51 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 100 91 85 81 72 55 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS