* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 82 81 79 76 70 65 61 54 50 51 53 52 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 90 75 74 62 50 42 33 31 27 20 16 17 19 18 18 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 90 75 72 61 49 36 32 35 35 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 9 8 13 18 18 27 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 181 159 206 226 196 232 228 230 222 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.7 28.4 30.0 30.8 31.1 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 143 128 145 161 168 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 5 3 5 5 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 65 60 58 53 50 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 23 20 17 14 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 58 45 30 14 -1 2 -6 24 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 57 75 63 9 32 16 29 28 30 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -12 -40 21 -11 -69 0 -19 26 74 42 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.5 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.7 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.0 114.1 114.0 113.7 113.4 113.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 10 6 1 10 23 32 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -24. -29. -29. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -20. -25. -29. -36. -40. -39. -37. -38. -38. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.2 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.29 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.52 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.2% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##