* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 104 101 93 86 77 68 58 50 43 38 32 27 22 17 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 104 101 93 86 77 68 58 50 43 38 32 27 22 17 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 100 94 89 80 73 67 61 55 50 45 41 39 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 8 8 4 8 11 12 15 17 22 24 27 29 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 0 -5 -5 0 -5 0 -5 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 254 178 205 213 194 203 230 204 225 209 210 201 204 205 217 219 227 SST (C) 29.3 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.3 26.7 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 145 140 138 137 125 129 125 117 110 107 108 107 106 108 106 107 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 74 71 66 63 57 51 46 42 40 35 28 25 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 25 25 23 22 19 16 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 72 65 64 44 26 4 -4 -11 -11 8 19 25 34 33 35 200 MB DIV 60 46 34 29 43 42 13 23 7 26 13 8 17 13 -7 -4 -11 700-850 TADV 7 4 3 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -12 -11 -8 0 6 LAND (KM) 292 167 54 66 61 97 70 62 54 89 104 99 96 89 83 87 83 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.3 26.3 27.0 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.1 111.9 113.1 114.1 114.9 115.5 115.9 116.0 115.9 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 42 18 5 4 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -28. -36. -43. -49. -54. -57. -60. -63. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -26. -24. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -24. -33. -42. -52. -60. -67. -72. -78. -83. -88. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.5 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 12.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##