* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 38 42 45 47 49 50 51 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 38 42 45 47 49 50 51 52 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 15 11 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -1 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 49 64 93 83 82 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 135 136 138 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 52 52 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 6 22 30 84 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 30 19 31 32 69 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 0 5 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1244 1202 1162 1130 1090 1023 998 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.2 15.5 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 119.7 119.1 118.3 117.6 115.8 114.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 7 8 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/12/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.28 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.71 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.0% 11.6% 8.6% 0.0% 13.0% 11.2% 9.6% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.4% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##