* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 42 44 47 49 51 53 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 42 44 47 49 51 53 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 11 13 11 19 15 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 -2 -3 0 -1 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 59 41 53 66 82 102 85 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 134 136 139 148 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 53 51 55 59 71 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 18 12 22 38 67 128 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 14 33 28 21 29 47 65 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 -2 0 4 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1254 1213 1172 1133 1094 1060 994 964 934 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.2 16.7 15.9 15.0 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.0 119.9 119.5 119.0 117.7 115.9 113.8 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 7 6 8 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 120.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/11/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.34 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.4% 11.9% 8.8% 0.0% 12.5% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.2% 0.1% 4.2% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##