* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 60 67 76 91 102 105 105 102 98 89 82 75 67 60 55 V (KT) LAND 50 54 60 67 76 91 102 105 105 102 98 89 82 75 67 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 63 69 81 93 103 107 105 97 85 75 65 55 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 12 10 6 9 5 11 5 1 6 9 15 15 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 2 -1 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 52 43 48 16 6 71 77 128 113 128 125 158 160 155 160 174 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 24.8 23.6 22.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 160 160 159 155 150 152 138 134 129 109 96 85 80 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 -49.3 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 80 79 80 81 78 78 76 73 72 71 67 63 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 27 28 32 34 37 38 39 40 40 37 35 33 29 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 14 34 34 30 42 56 91 99 95 91 97 77 78 55 76 74 56 200 MB DIV 74 101 84 87 71 63 94 73 133 61 25 47 37 47 27 8 -4 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 0 -3 -3 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -1 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 355 363 371 374 377 372 343 369 378 274 289 295 360 398 446 527 603 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.8 16.8 18.1 19.5 21.0 22.4 23.6 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.9 105.0 105.7 106.8 108.3 109.9 111.7 113.4 114.9 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 3 6 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 69 70 69 70 60 31 19 21 16 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 5. 9. 10. 16. 21. 26. 27. 26. 21. 17. 13. 8. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 26. 41. 52. 55. 55. 52. 48. 39. 32. 25. 17. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.2 104.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.08 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.90 -7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.25 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.73 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 19.5% 16.2% 0.0% 23.9% 18.6% 18.6% Logistic: 0.7% 8.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.0% 2.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 4.1% 13.8% 52.8% Consensus: 0.3% 12.3% 8.1% 5.9% 0.2% 10.0% 11.7% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##