* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 55 64 81 95 105 108 107 106 101 99 94 89 82 77 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 55 64 81 95 105 108 107 106 99 97 91 85 78 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 52 67 85 101 110 115 115 105 98 90 79 64 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 11 10 10 6 4 6 11 10 7 8 4 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 4 2 0 0 2 1 0 -4 -2 -5 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 59 56 53 29 24 350 59 115 138 173 186 216 225 233 233 214 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.3 28.0 28.3 25.9 23.8 21.5 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 155 156 155 156 159 163 164 158 144 147 122 100 76 64 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -49.3 -49.5 -49.1 -49.3 -49.1 -48.8 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 80 78 78 76 76 76 77 76 73 76 72 70 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 19 21 26 31 35 36 36 38 36 37 34 32 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 10 27 38 37 35 64 68 100 138 122 116 84 62 60 62 19 26 200 MB DIV 52 72 87 92 113 104 92 70 80 81 105 41 8 15 23 29 17 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 3 2 -1 -1 -7 -11 -8 -4 0 1 8 8 6 3 LAND (KM) 313 298 283 273 263 234 193 153 99 146 168 6 9 138 161 261 424 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.5 18.7 20.3 21.9 23.4 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.5 103.9 104.6 105.6 107.1 108.7 110.4 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 2 2 5 7 9 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 53 52 52 46 42 43 34 42 34 7 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 25. 30. 30. 32. 28. 26. 21. 16. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 20. 29. 46. 60. 70. 73. 72. 71. 66. 64. 59. 54. 47. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/10/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.90 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.55 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 17.8% 45.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 6.7% 16.1% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.2% 10.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.8% 2.3% 60.0% Consensus: 0.5% 16.4% 10.2% 1.5% 0.2% 9.5% 12.1% 42.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##