* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 83 81 75 63 51 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 83 81 75 63 51 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 79 76 66 56 45 36 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 13 8 6 9 9 7 9 7 8 10 18 18 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 3 2 0 5 2 5 3 2 2 0 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 53 53 53 46 21 60 84 121 123 128 94 111 115 137 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.4 27.2 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.8 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 155 156 147 135 125 118 110 101 91 86 85 86 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -49.5 -50.1 -49.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 57 55 51 47 40 36 30 23 17 17 16 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 27 26 25 21 19 15 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 46 50 47 32 32 21 10 9 11 8 6 10 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 31 11 15 24 -24 -7 -10 20 1 -1 -20 8 -2 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 -1 0 3 1 2 -3 -6 -2 -4 -3 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 172 178 175 141 183 206 211 240 295 296 305 296 287 283 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.0 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.3 117.3 118.0 118.5 118.8 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 19 22 28 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -16. -23. -29. -29. -29. -26. -24. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 1. -5. -17. -29. -42. -54. -65. -70. -76. -78. -81. -80. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.7 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 23.6% 20.0% 16.6% 12.9% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 12.4% 4.8% 2.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 12.5% 8.3% 6.5% 5.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##