* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 50 41 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 50 41 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 59 53 45 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 61 71 75 75 60 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 -5 -6 -3 5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 225 220 216 212 228 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.1 16.0 16.6 14.9 13.0 13.0 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 77 77 74 73 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 74 74 71 70 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -49.3 -48.8 -47.9 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 2.5 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 46 46 45 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 35 35 33 30 22 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 117 132 169 216 178 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 60 17 28 53 97 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 25 -55 -122 -120 -96 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 434 614 865 1112 1374 1132 891 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.4 46.5 48.5 50.5 52.4 57.3 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 44.9 41.2 37.8 34.5 27.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 41 33 31 29 31 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 48 CX,CY: 39/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -12. -16. -20. -27. -33. -38. -41. -45. -49. -52. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -22. -28. -37. -45. -49. -55. -63. -71. -81. -88. -93. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. -1. -8. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -20. -21. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -20. -29. -50. -51. -65. -76. -82. -92.-101.-111.-128.-138.-145.-152. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 44.4 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 83.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 58 50 41 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 63 55 46 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 49 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 51 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT