* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 29 27 23 20 18 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 8 7 3 7 5 7 10 11 14 15 18 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 1 5 -3 2 -1 -1 1 0 3 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 292 257 236 231 198 211 220 202 211 218 227 234 241 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 22.2 21.5 21.4 21.6 22.5 22.5 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 85 78 76 78 86 85 88 88 90 92 93 95 96 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 55 53 49 44 41 39 34 32 34 35 35 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 25 24 22 18 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 18 0 -11 0 -10 -20 -29 -30 -33 -34 -34 -22 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 5 19 28 2 31 4 12 -1 2 2 1 -8 -16 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 16 19 9 9 5 6 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1326 1322 1334 1349 1374 1364 1426 1489 1556 1619 1681 1734 1792 1831 1766 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.5 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.5 130.7 131.7 132.7 134.1 135.4 136.5 137.5 138.3 139.0 139.6 140.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -36. -39. -43. -47. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.9 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##