* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 35 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 35 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 40 36 33 28 24 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 5 7 5 6 4 4 5 10 10 14 14 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 2 4 1 7 -1 5 2 2 4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 260 269 256 223 229 159 191 189 203 206 218 230 253 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 22.9 21.9 21.0 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 93 82 73 71 79 87 91 89 92 95 97 99 102 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 59 53 48 42 39 36 32 31 31 31 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 29 27 26 25 22 19 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 46 22 15 8 -2 13 9 -6 -14 -16 -18 -9 -12 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 11 10 14 26 3 34 14 4 -6 -5 0 -10 -13 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 -1 7 20 10 6 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1179 1264 1316 1310 1319 1350 1342 1392 1454 1525 1609 1685 1753 1835 1791 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.9 26.7 28.2 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.0 128.3 129.5 130.6 132.4 133.6 134.6 135.6 136.5 137.4 138.2 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 9 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -16. -23. -26. -28. -29. -27. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -28. -33. -38. -40. -43. -46. -48. -50. -51. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.4 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##