* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 80 91 102 117 125 127 125 115 102 84 70 58 50 43 38 V (KT) LAND 60 70 80 91 102 117 125 127 125 115 102 84 70 58 50 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 69 79 89 100 118 127 127 117 100 83 67 54 42 34 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 15 12 15 12 12 15 19 26 20 5 5 4 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 4 7 3 0 0 4 -3 -1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 53 16 26 42 21 28 32 19 40 33 41 59 70 47 62 80 95 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.4 23.9 21.6 22.5 22.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 162 162 160 158 155 150 141 134 126 118 102 78 88 88 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 -48.6 -49.1 -49.0 -49.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 86 84 83 82 82 82 81 81 80 74 68 64 63 62 57 51 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 28 31 34 39 44 47 50 49 47 42 38 33 29 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 45 50 56 65 84 98 154 176 172 173 171 133 110 61 45 200 MB DIV 144 120 126 100 102 93 97 108 124 22 18 -15 -5 -15 -13 -9 8 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -9 -6 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -11 1 -7 1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 522 533 558 594 620 693 766 731 760 784 856 927 1026 1161 1250 1275 1341 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.4 20.6 21.9 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.2 106.2 107.2 108.2 110.0 111.7 113.3 115.2 117.2 119.3 121.5 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 61 51 36 27 38 25 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 36. 36. 32. 24. 16. 10. 5. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 20. 31. 42. 57. 65. 67. 65. 55. 42. 24. 10. -2. -10. -17. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.5 104.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 19.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 16.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 17.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.46 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -28.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.94 -22.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 17.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 15.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.53 5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 7.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.1% 87.5% 83.2% 79.0% 65.2% 52.9% 37.0% 13.9% Logistic: 37.0% 70.7% 42.9% 31.1% 34.3% 30.1% 18.3% 9.3% Bayesian: 56.2% 73.2% 79.9% 68.0% 48.1% 71.5% 64.4% 45.6% Consensus: 53.4% 77.2% 68.7% 59.4% 49.2% 51.5% 39.9% 22.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##