* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 53 48 40 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 53 48 40 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 48 41 35 31 28 25 23 22 20 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 4 4 3 5 7 7 17 22 32 28 35 44 50 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 -3 0 -4 -4 -6 -3 0 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 87 135 119 148 161 315 277 289 266 269 240 237 224 231 236 231 235 SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.8 24.5 23.7 21.5 22.0 22.6 22.5 22.6 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.4 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 113 110 107 99 76 81 87 86 87 94 96 99 103 107 116 117 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.6 -49.1 -49.2 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 54 54 52 52 54 51 50 47 46 43 43 35 32 31 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 36 34 31 29 26 23 21 18 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 108 110 102 92 82 68 104 108 114 109 95 89 84 70 59 31 26 200 MB DIV 54 44 -5 -11 3 -28 34 1 6 4 10 9 11 14 8 -13 -19 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 5 4 -2 3 0 4 4 15 12 13 7 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 1102 1111 1125 1142 1166 1243 1318 1314 1334 1387 1475 1537 1661 1791 1773 1641 1552 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.0 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.6 125.2 126.6 128.0 129.3 130.7 132.2 134.0 135.9 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -15. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -11. -18. -24. -27. -30. -30. -28. -26. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -44. -49. -53. -57. -60. -63. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.7 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##