* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 53 54 52 47 41 35 29 24 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 53 54 52 47 41 35 29 24 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 47 43 39 33 28 24 21 19 18 17 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 5 8 4 4 6 8 10 10 9 10 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 -1 2 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 88 89 58 63 97 81 113 154 225 239 255 225 212 255 242 259 256 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.6 24.7 22.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 125 124 118 109 89 66 73 81 84 86 87 92 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 67 65 61 61 61 61 58 56 51 51 46 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 36 35 35 33 31 29 26 23 21 18 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 104 130 138 138 126 96 95 108 106 114 100 91 57 38 34 200 MB DIV 57 72 100 90 51 36 5 -3 19 8 7 2 1 -21 -1 -8 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 1124 1124 1125 1121 1114 1094 1095 1126 1184 1243 1237 1259 1308 1381 1424 1526 1633 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122.6 123.7 125.0 126.2 127.5 128.9 130.4 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -27. -29. -30. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 120.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 2.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##