* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 42 43 46 49 53 56 55 56 52 45 39 35 32 28 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 42 43 46 49 53 56 55 56 52 45 39 35 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 43 44 43 40 38 35 31 27 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 14 18 13 14 10 7 2 2 5 4 17 20 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 0 5 3 4 5 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 76 57 59 76 64 101 68 75 98 174 184 316 268 251 240 224 223 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.1 21.5 21.6 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 134 132 130 128 125 119 110 92 76 77 81 82 85 86 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 78 79 78 76 72 68 63 63 63 66 66 66 63 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 28 28 29 31 32 32 30 30 28 23 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 89 97 99 98 123 119 112 79 56 62 67 70 78 77 78 200 MB DIV 74 77 80 75 70 65 77 16 36 -9 31 2 40 3 28 -19 21 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -6 -2 -4 0 -1 1 5 6 8 2 LAND (KM) 1086 1089 1097 1093 1091 1076 1053 1047 1004 996 1015 1069 1139 1137 1156 1228 1269 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.8 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.8 119.3 119.6 119.9 120.3 120.7 121.2 121.9 122.9 124.0 125.2 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 7. 7. 3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 20. 21. 17. 10. 4. 0. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/19/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.29 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.1% 14.0% 11.0% 0.0% 14.8% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.5% 4.9% 3.8% 0.0% 5.2% 4.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##