* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 47 51 56 55 56 55 50 45 42 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 47 51 56 55 56 55 50 45 42 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 36 35 34 33 31 28 25 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 16 17 18 10 16 7 7 6 2 1 9 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 3 -1 5 -2 3 2 3 0 -2 -5 0 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 71 76 74 80 86 70 59 94 87 128 178 268 221 246 237 236 222 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.2 21.8 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 141 138 134 131 129 127 123 116 104 79 74 77 77 80 82 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 76 77 74 72 67 66 62 63 61 62 55 57 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 29 32 33 33 32 31 31 27 24 21 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 65 79 83 86 100 112 125 141 131 116 89 61 52 63 79 78 65 200 MB DIV 68 77 81 60 61 54 75 42 20 7 20 -2 0 9 -10 10 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 3 2 4 5 5 11 LAND (KM) 1075 1086 1096 1097 1100 1075 1047 1025 999 956 943 979 1044 1031 1029 1075 1142 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.3 119.7 120.0 120.3 120.6 121.1 121.9 122.9 124.1 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 21. 20. 17. 13. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 11. 10. 9. 4. -0. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 26. 25. 26. 25. 20. 15. 12. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.18 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.26 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.76 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 13.8% 11.1% 8.2% 0.0% 11.4% 11.0% 11.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.2% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##