* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 69 70 69 66 65 62 61 59 60 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 69 70 69 66 65 62 61 59 60 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 66 66 64 61 57 53 50 47 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 4 4 3 5 13 13 13 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 3 4 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 59 121 143 273 284 250 218 233 212 170 181 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 123 124 123 121 122 120 122 126 127 131 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 61 59 55 55 56 58 54 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 29 29 29 27 27 26 26 24 24 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 11 6 -4 4 -11 5 -1 -4 -24 -32 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 67 65 22 34 34 7 57 43 33 2 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 5 9 6 9 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2145 2246 2206 2041 1877 1551 1236 935 648 410 278 268 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 22.0 23.5 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.1 132.7 134.2 135.7 137.2 140.2 143.1 145.9 148.6 151.1 153.6 156.1 158.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.6 131.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.71 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 24.9% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 5.9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 10.3% 8.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##