* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 66 75 78 83 88 94 96 94 93 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 66 75 78 83 88 94 96 94 93 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 67 79 90 98 103 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 10 7 3 6 5 5 11 5 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 1 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 90 103 97 57 67 32 343 331 329 320 298 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.1 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 155 152 153 147 153 156 155 153 151 157 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 72 74 76 72 67 66 66 64 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 15 15 18 21 25 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 101 104 105 101 92 85 77 65 85 85 105 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 109 126 80 52 56 30 34 45 92 71 92 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1493 1521 1565 1625 1697 1876 2088 2314 2529 2733 2812 2577 2368 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.9 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.5 168.0 169.4 170.9 172.3 175.2 178.1 180.9 183.4 185.7 187.9 190.2 192.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 30 31 34 44 40 69 53 45 43 44 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 13. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 36. 45. 48. 53. 58. 64. 66. 64. 63. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 166.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.2% 25.2% 22.6% 12.0% 9.2% 10.5% 18.3% 42.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 3.5% 13.7% 24.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##