* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 77 77 76 76 74 72 67 66 58 46 30 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 75 77 77 76 76 74 72 67 66 58 46 30 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 76 80 80 79 79 79 72 63 53 46 41 37 35 34 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 20 22 22 32 45 54 55 62 60 65 70 70 64 55 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 5 -2 1 -3 0 -7 -1 -5 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 337 322 305 302 285 255 237 230 236 237 243 256 262 261 255 252 245 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.2 25.7 21.0 16.3 15.0 16.0 15.3 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 145 135 129 130 131 115 86 74 71 72 71 70 71 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 131 122 116 115 116 101 78 69 67 68 67 67 67 67 68 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.0 -52.5 -50.7 -49.3 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 62 64 55 56 58 62 59 60 64 71 68 61 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 14 16 19 21 27 29 29 26 24 20 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -41 -36 -41 -31 -10 53 100 114 105 96 127 168 184 166 102 65 200 MB DIV 62 80 81 28 35 67 116 111 73 98 55 41 17 20 0 0 -8 700-850 TADV 21 23 18 17 25 10 18 20 22 27 -4 -38 -26 -64 -65 -43 -43 LAND (KM) 640 678 614 515 458 611 517 405 291 244 583 946 1308 1399 1035 672 334 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.4 30.0 31.6 33.2 36.1 38.9 41.7 44.2 46.2 47.7 48.8 49.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.4 73.2 72.4 71.7 68.8 64.6 59.8 54.9 50.0 45.0 40.1 35.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 20 22 23 20 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 16 8 5 19 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -40. -47. -57. -64. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 17. 19. 18. 13. 9. 3. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -3. -4. -12. -24. -40. -54. -67. -82. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.8 73.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 17.5% 12.2% 10.1% 8.9% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 11.6% 9.2% 9.9% 1.6% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 15.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 9.7% 7.2% 6.8% 3.5% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 5( 14) 5( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 77 77 76 76 74 72 67 66 58 46 30 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 71 71 70 70 68 66 61 60 52 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 65 63 61 56 55 47 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 59 57 55 50 49 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT