* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 44 55 63 70 76 82 84 88 86 86 86 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 44 55 63 70 76 82 84 88 86 86 86 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 38 44 53 63 76 88 98 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 11 8 6 6 10 8 8 5 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -8 -8 -3 -7 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 93 91 111 117 80 79 53 88 51 20 340 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 147 147 147 150 145 149 154 156 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 70 70 72 77 77 78 74 73 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 16 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 90 92 94 89 82 75 63 51 48 58 45 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -5 15 40 49 50 96 81 43 29 32 34 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1115 1173 1243 1313 1391 1473 1550 1658 1805 2003 2220 2466 2722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 10.2 10.9 11.8 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.5 160.8 162.1 163.3 164.5 166.9 169.3 171.8 174.4 177.2 179.9 182.7 185.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 41 44 46 42 32 28 35 38 64 56 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 25. 33. 40. 46. 52. 54. 58. 56. 56. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 159.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 5.4% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##