* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 49 53 58 62 66 69 70 66 56 44 35 27 V (KT) LAND 45 45 40 45 45 48 52 57 62 66 68 69 65 56 43 34 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 40 44 44 45 47 50 55 60 65 68 64 53 43 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 17 13 18 17 14 15 10 12 19 28 36 46 49 55 62 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -4 -4 -6 -2 -3 -4 -3 2 4 0 -1 0 1 -11 SHEAR DIR 302 313 294 295 302 320 333 310 296 260 252 249 261 279 297 306 309 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.1 28.6 27.3 26.7 27.0 27.1 25.2 19.0 18.3 19.2 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 154 149 148 153 155 147 130 123 128 129 111 80 79 81 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 153 146 142 144 143 133 116 109 112 113 98 75 73 74 70 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 54 55 60 60 64 67 64 63 62 63 61 61 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 13 13 11 8 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -28 -30 -53 -79 -86 -87 -50 -52 -45 -5 -9 -17 -37 -61 -50 -22 200 MB DIV -13 6 17 18 17 35 41 54 31 52 57 53 20 -13 -3 -5 -31 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 -3 5 4 16 11 14 2 20 22 38 51 68 67 72 LAND (KM) 145 32 -9 26 145 372 630 692 571 667 696 674 645 447 685 1087 1527 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.1 23.6 26.4 29.3 32.1 34.6 36.8 38.8 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.9 67.3 68.8 70.0 71.3 73.2 73.7 73.0 71.2 68.5 64.9 60.4 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 14 14 15 17 17 19 21 22 23 23 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 58 64 46 49 41 47 29 21 6 3 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -12. -19. -26. -33. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. -2. -5. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 21. 11. -1. -10. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 65.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.35 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 13.0% 21.9% Logistic: 1.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 3.2% 3.6% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.6% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 4.5% 5.5% 9.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 40 45 45 48 52 57 62 66 68 69 65 56 43 34 27 18HR AGO 45 44 39 44 44 47 51 56 61 65 67 68 64 55 42 33 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 46 49 53 58 63 67 69 70 66 57 44 35 28 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 42 47 52 56 58 59 55 46 33 24 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT