* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 49 56 62 69 76 78 78 74 73 67 65 64 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 35 41 49 56 62 69 76 78 78 74 73 67 65 64 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 53 59 63 67 67 66 64 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 11 8 15 13 6 7 6 6 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -7 -2 -3 -3 -3 3 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 332 346 356 20 38 51 50 47 319 266 268 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 26.5 26.2 26.2 25.4 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 137 135 135 138 137 128 124 124 116 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 -50.8 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 71 68 66 65 62 63 66 64 59 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 22 24 25 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 25 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 40 42 39 25 12 14 10 8 4 21 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 99 104 86 78 18 51 60 47 19 67 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 1 3 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1762 1783 1808 1845 1885 1971 2074 2188 2284 2117 1962 1806 1610 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.3 125.1 125.9 126.7 128.3 130.0 131.9 133.5 135.1 136.6 138.1 140.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 12 8 5 4 4 18 13 2 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 10. 12. 13. 11. 12. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 34. 41. 43. 43. 40. 38. 32. 31. 29. 28. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 123.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.57 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 36.3% 23.4% 18.4% 12.8% 24.0% 20.8% 18.4% Logistic: 18.8% 48.2% 30.6% 21.7% 12.0% 5.8% 3.0% 8.0% Bayesian: 6.3% 13.9% 9.0% 4.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 13.5% 32.8% 21.0% 14.7% 8.4% 10.4% 8.1% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##