* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 36 38 41 43 45 46 46 47 49 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 36 38 41 43 45 46 46 47 49 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 30 29 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 8 7 6 4 4 4 6 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -4 0 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 132 135 133 140 202 267 204 193 199 185 212 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 136 139 137 134 131 131 130 130 131 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 62 69 71 72 66 62 59 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 32 27 18 20 25 29 33 35 38 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 27 15 15 15 37 34 39 27 37 63 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 907 871 837 794 754 691 661 653 679 723 801 905 962 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.5 151.1 151.8 152.4 153.7 155.1 156.5 157.9 159.3 160.7 162.2 163.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 20 21 17 13 7 10 15 11 5 4 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 19. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 149.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 3.3% 8.5% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##