* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 36 42 50 58 61 63 62 61 58 55 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 36 42 50 58 61 63 62 61 58 55 54 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 31 36 41 45 49 51 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 8 5 9 4 6 5 6 4 6 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 1 2 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 307 331 32 98 62 80 113 113 207 269 240 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 128 127 124 125 125 123 123 125 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 66 68 70 68 69 71 71 69 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 15 17 18 17 17 18 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 7 18 25 34 41 38 24 18 13 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 48 34 57 66 91 95 57 36 25 13 41 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1429 1352 1276 1210 1144 1039 944 859 783 695 605 504 404 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.3 145.0 145.7 146.3 147.3 148.2 149.0 149.8 150.7 151.7 152.8 153.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 3 2 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 31. 33. 32. 31. 28. 25. 24. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 143.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##