* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 67 69 70 65 58 54 44 31 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 67 69 70 65 58 54 44 31 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 70 70 66 56 47 40 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 9 12 11 17 13 5 22 36 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 9 6 4 0 2 0 -7 -9 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 296 296 289 279 196 203 217 243 5 4 6 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.8 26.8 25.2 24.4 23.3 23.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 157 151 143 133 115 107 95 92 86 91 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 60 58 59 56 54 45 41 35 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 16 13 12 12 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -27 -21 -23 -26 -23 -31 -24 -34 -35 -41 -40 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 18 42 45 47 45 -16 -7 -14 -39 -50 -66 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 6 5 3 8 6 2 4 0 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 575 627 576 558 576 620 730 815 915 1055 1188 1326 1467 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.7 21.7 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.7 111.8 113.0 114.1 116.4 118.6 120.6 122.4 124.2 125.8 127.3 128.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 18 16 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. -0. -5. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 10. 3. -1. -11. -24. -35. -40. -41. -41. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.18 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 39.1% 32.1% 29.3% 14.6% 26.1% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 24.0% 26.5% 24.0% 15.6% 3.4% 14.7% 1.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.1% 24.6% 19.2% 15.1% 6.1% 13.6% 5.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##