* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 81 88 99 100 95 86 78 68 59 50 42 34 27 19 V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 81 88 99 100 95 86 78 68 59 50 42 34 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 77 83 95 100 96 88 77 65 55 46 37 29 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 6 1 2 5 6 15 17 19 21 25 29 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -8 -7 0 4 6 5 1 -6 0 1 2 4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 4 347 323 345 345 305 134 234 219 227 252 266 265 244 231 252 272 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.0 24.0 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 158 156 153 146 136 131 125 115 109 101 101 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.2 -51.1 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 58 58 55 54 54 52 50 43 37 32 29 23 21 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 -1 3 7 7 15 12 3 -4 -13 -9 -13 -6 -18 -9 -10 200 MB DIV 49 41 35 55 52 11 55 3 26 7 -24 -19 -14 -9 -17 -12 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 298 315 343 371 407 432 498 557 540 524 555 609 658 735 823 929 1035 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.6 106.2 107.5 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.6 114.7 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 44 41 36 22 19 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 33. 44. 45. 40. 31. 23. 13. 4. -5. -13. -21. -28. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.4 103.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 21.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 17.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 10.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.92 20.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -16.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 18.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 15.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 7.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 19.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 63.6% 97.1% 96.1% 95.1% 82.6% 100.0% 72.1% 36.9% Logistic: 28.3% 57.1% 48.7% 40.5% 56.3% 36.7% 25.6% 13.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 41.2% 19.6% 11.6% 12.0% 17.2% 4.2% 0.4% Consensus: 31.3% 65.1% 54.8% 49.1% 50.3% 51.3% 34.0% 16.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##