* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 21 20 18 17 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 21 20 18 17 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 25 21 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 15 12 10 9 12 11 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -5 -5 -1 2 3 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 167 162 172 170 143 103 105 109 110 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 140 139 137 138 139 138 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 57 53 50 51 45 43 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 53 48 49 54 61 49 52 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 20 36 53 46 14 21 13 8 -15 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 655 608 560 532 504 480 488 528 569 617 658 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 109.8 109.4 109.2 108.9 108.6 108.7 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 0 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. -10. -7. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.40 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 19.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##