* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 45 45 39 39 37 39 41 41 41 41 43 45 47 49 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 45 45 39 39 37 39 41 41 41 41 43 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 45 41 36 32 30 29 29 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 17 17 15 7 4 4 6 12 12 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 4 -2 2 0 6 10 11 9 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 189 187 173 179 181 142 159 55 91 104 110 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 138 138 136 134 132 132 133 134 137 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 58 52 49 43 39 35 39 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 24 19 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 43 49 50 53 48 48 49 42 55 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 55 41 54 37 31 40 29 13 0 7 9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 3 -1 0 -1 0 2 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 913 856 798 732 666 543 483 468 494 557 602 660 718 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.4 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 111.8 111.4 110.9 110.4 109.5 109.1 109.0 109.3 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 4 2 0 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 9 9 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -10. -16. -16. -18. -16. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -10. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 112.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##