* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 49 42 28 25 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 49 42 28 25 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 47 48 47 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 19 16 14 11 20 46 54 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 2 12 4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 191 186 208 229 278 287 288 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 20.8 19.0 18.5 17.8 16.5 16.2 17.0 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 87 81 80 77 74 71 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 76 75 73 69 67 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.9 -59.4 -59.1 -58.8 -58.5 -59.2 -60.0 -60.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 44 44 46 42 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 24 25 23 21 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 73 83 88 99 76 26 -10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 40 44 24 10 29 4 -19 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -39 -22 -15 -3 29 38 -4 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1293 1371 1491 1665 1833 1365 1026 782 549 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.6 39.7 40.5 41.2 42.4 42.8 42.2 41.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.5 40.4 37.4 34.3 31.2 25.8 21.7 18.6 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 25 25 23 18 13 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -15. -19. -24. -29. -33. -40. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 4. -3. -17. -20. -24. -28. -30. -33. -34. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.5 43.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 49 50 52 49 42 28 25 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 49 46 39 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 42 35 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT